Monday, April 26, 2010

News: Wanna know why is impossible to save Greece?

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While Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), calmed Greek investors saying that "Greek aid will come on time", German investors and parties believe the opposite and stands that there's no future in Greek economy.

Can we blame Germans? Greek stocks fell and bond yields jumped, their investors add pressure on Greece and the country seems a bottomless pit for money.

Business Insider exposes why is impossible to save Greece. Click here to see why

But, who will fail with Greece? Mainly, banks:

  • French banks represent over 25% of claims
  • Swiss banks represent over 20% of claim
  • German banks represent close to 15% of claim
  • U.S. banks represent just above 5% of claims
  • U.K. banks represent about 3% of claims

80% of Greek debt claims are on European banks. This is a European problem.

Euro is sufferint too with Greek crisis and his value is going down. Also, EMU (Economic and Monetary Union) being concerned about Euro, will harden conditions to join Eurozone, specially will look closelly external imbalances and budget positions.

Will Greece fall?

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Special: Greek crisis

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Economy Lesson: “Stabilizing” Commodities, by Henry Hazlitt

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Attempts to lift the prices of particular commodities permanently above their natural market levels have failed so often, so disastrously and so notoriously that sophisticated pressure groups, and the bureaucrats upon whom they apply the pressure, seldom openly avow that aim. Their stated aims, particularly when they are first proposing that the government intervene, are usually more modest, and more plausible.

They have no wish, they declare, to raise the price of commodity X permanently above its natural level. That, they concede, would be unfair to consumers. But it is now obviously selling far below its natural level. The producers cannot make a living. Unless we act promptly, they will be thrown out of business. Then there will be a real scarcity, and consumers will have to pay exorbitant prices for the commodity. The apparent bargains that the consumers are now getting will cost them dear in the end. For the present “temporary” low price cannot last. But we cannot afford to wait for so-called natural market forces, or for the “blind” law of supply and demand, to correct the situation. For by that time the producers will be ruined and a great scarcity will be upon us. The government must act. All that we really want to do is to correct these violent, senseless fluctuations in price. We are not trying to boost the price; we are only trying to stabilize it.

There are several methods by which it is commonly proposed to do this. One of the most frequent is government loans to farmers to enable them to hold their crops off the market.

Such loans are urged in Congress for reasons that seem very plausible to most listeners. They are told that the farmers’ crops are all dumped on the market at once, at harvest time; that this is precisely the time when prices are lowest, and that speculators take advantage of this to buy the crops themselves and hold them for higher prices when food gets scarcer again. Thus it is urged that the farmers suffer, and that they, rather than the speculators, should get the advantage of the higher average price.

This argument is not supported by either theory or experience. The much-reviled speculators are not the enemy of the farmer; they are essential to his best welfare. The risks of fluctuating farm prices must be borne by somebody; they have in fact been borne in modern times chiefly by the professional speculators. In general, the more competently the latter act in their own interest as speculators, the more they help the farmer. For speculators serve their own interest precisely in proportion to their ability to foresee future prices. But the more accurately they foresee future prices the less violent or extreme are the fluctuations in prices.

Even if farmers had to dump their whole crop of wheat on the market in a single month of the year, therefore, the price in that month would not necessarily be below the price at any other month (apart from an allowance for the costs of storage). For speculators, in the hope of making a profit, would do most of their buying at that time. They would keep on buying until the price rose to a point where they saw no further opportunity of future profit. They would sell whenever they thought there was a prospect of future loss. The result would be to stabilize the price of farm commodities the year round.

It is precisely because a professional class of speculators exists to take these risks that farmers and millers do not need to take them. The latter can protect themselves through the markets. Under normal conditions, therefore, when speculators are doing their job well, the profits of farmers and millers will depend chiefly on their skill and industry in farming or milling, and not on market fluctuations.

Actual experience shows that on the average the price of wheat and other nonperishable crops remains the same all year round except for an allowance for storage, interest and insurance charges. In fact, some careful investigations have shown that the average monthly rise after harvest time has not been quite sufficient to pay such storage charges, so that the speculators have actually subsidized the farmers. This, of course, was not their intention: it has simply been the result of a persistent tendency to overoptimism on the part of speculators. (This tendency seems to affect entrepreneurs in most competitive pursuits: as a class they are constantly, contrary to intention, subsidizing consumers. This is particularly true wherever the prospects of big speculative gains exist. Just as the subscribers to a lottery, considered as a unit, lose money because each is unjustifiably hopeful of drawing one of the few spectacular prizes, so it has been calculated that the total value of the labor and capital dumped into prospecting for gold or oil has exceeded the total value of the gold or oil extracted.)

The case is different, however, when the State steps in and either buys the farmers’ crops itself or lends them the money to hold the crops off the market. This is sometimes done in the name of maintaining what is plausibly called an “ever-normal granary. But the history of prices and annual carryovers of crops shows that this function, as we have seen, is already being well performed by the privately organized free markets. When the government steps in, the ever-normal granary becomes in fact an ever-political granary. The farmer is encouraged, with the taxpayers’ money, to withhold his crops excessively. Because they wish to make sure of retaining the farmer’s vote, the politicians who initiate the policy, or the bureaucrats who carry it out, always place the so-called fair price for the farmer’s product above the price that supply and demand conditions at the time justify. This leads to a falling off in buyers. The ever-normal granary therefore tends to become an ever-abnormal granary. Excessive stocks are held off the market. The effect of this is to secure a higher price temporarily than would otherwise exist, but to do so only by bringing about later on a much lower price than would otherwise have existed. For the artificial shortage built up this year by withholding part of a crop from the market means an artificial surplus the next year.

It would carry us too far afield to describe in detail what actually happened when this program was applied, for example, to Amencan cotton. We piled up an entire year’s crop in storage. We destroyed the foreign market for our cotton. We stimulated enormously the growth of cotton in other countries. Though these results had been predicted by opponents of the restriction and loan policy, when they actually happened the bureaucrats responsible for the result merely replied that they would have happened anyway.

For the loan policy is usually accompanied by, or inevitably leads to, a policy of restricting production — i.e., a policy of scarcity. In nearly every effort to “stabilize” the price of a commodity, the interests of the producers have been put first. The real object is an immediate boost of prices. To make this possible, a proportional restriction of output is usually placed on each producer subject to the control. This has several immediately bad effects. Assuming that the control can be imposed on an international scale, it means that total world production is cut. The world’s consumers are able to enjoy less of that product than they would have enjoyed without restriction. The world is just that much poorer. Because consumers are forced to pay higher prices than otherwise for that product, they have just that much less to spend on other products.

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Sunday, April 25, 2010

SEC's lawsuit against Goldman Sachs : What you need to know to understand subprime crisis and his effects (Updated 28 Apr)

Press of today dedicate a few pages to Goldman's lawsuit case everyday. But, we know what's happening?

Today post is a bit different of other day's entries. We're going to explain what's Goldman Sanchs Inc and what's going on.

What's Goldman Sachs?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc, is a business based in global investment banking and securities firm. They cover from investment banking to investment management, residential mortgage market, securities services and more financial services.

Founded in 1869, with his 'headquarters' at 200 West Street, in Lower Manhattan, NYC, provides advice in mergers and acquisitions, assets, etc and is the primary dealer in the United States Treasury security Market, and former employees served as United States Secretary of the Treasury

What's going on?

In 2010 Goldman Sachs was accused of the 2010 European sovereign deb crisis because between 1998-2009 helped the Greek government to hide their national true debt facts. In September 2009, Goldman and others created a special Credit Default Swap (CDS) index for the cover of high risk national debt of Greece, leading Greek interest-rates national bonds to a high level, sinking Greek economy to an almost bankruptcy in March 2010, when Greek government asked for an international aid, in form of a package of €45 bn. Also, SEC suit them at 16 April, 2010



What happened, step by step?

April 16:

On April 16, 2010, SEC alleged that Goldman misstated and omitted facts in disclosure documents for a synthetic CDO [A Financial security used to speculate and manage the risk that an obligation will not be paid] called Abacus 2007-AC1, where Goldman was paid approximately US$ 5 million for it's work. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Goldman Sachs and one of it's employees, Fabrice Tourre because this . SEC based his allegation in that Goldman misrepresented that a third party, ACA, reviewed the mortgage package underlying the credit default obligations an Goldman failed to disclose to ACA that a hedge fund, Paulson & Co, that sought to short the package, had helped select underlying mortgages for the package against which it planned to bet. "Tourre also misled ACA into believing that Paulson invested $200 million in the equity of ABACUS 2007-ACI (Click here to view Abacus 2007-ACI structure) and that Paulson's interests in the collateral section preocess were aligned with ACA's when Paulson true interests were sharply conflicting", said SEC. Goldman, on the other hand, stated that the firm never represented to ACA that Paulson was to be a log investor, and that as normal business practice, market makers do not disclose the identities of a buyer to a seller and vice versa

Apparently, Paulson made a $1 billion profit from the short investments, while purchasers lost the same amount, specially their main investors, ABN Amro who lost $840,909,090 and IKB Deutsche Industriebank, $150,000,000 within months of the purchase.

After SEC announced the suit on April 16, 2010, Goldman's stock fell 13% on volume of over 102,000,000 shares, $10 billion in market value during the day session.

"The SEC’s charges are completely unfounded in law and fact and we will vigorously contest them and defend the firm and its reputation" responded Goldman at their Website

April 19:

Goldman issued a statement in a public meeting in response to the suit. This divided the opinion between some who called these statements misleading and not true, while others believe that either Goldman has a strong defense or that SEC has a weak case. You can read the comment at this PDF

April 20:

First rumours about SEC second intentions spread about political motivations. While, Goldman Sachs earnings double to $3.5 bn.

April 21:

Obama denies his influence in Goldman Case and SEC's Schapiro rejected GOP claims that Democrat's agenda spurred Goldman case

April 22:

Blackstone chief defends Goldman ethics

April 23:

Disgruntled bondholders round on Goldman

April 25:

Goldman emails reveal plans to capitalise on subprime crisis , said France 24, and Business Insider offer us The juiciest Goldman Email details.

April 26:

Goldman Sachs: Trust is key to survival, says chief.The chief executive of Goldman Sachs is to tell a US Senate hearing that the firm did not mislead clients and could not survive without their trust.

A shareholder filed a lawsuit against Goldman Sachs. It's the third known case of a shareholder suing the company .

Abril 27:

First US Senate hearing. Fabrice Tourre, the big loser

April 28:

The head of the Securities and Exchange Commission said Wednesday there was no connection between the timing of the agency's fraud charges against Goldman Sachs and efforts in the Senate to speed passage of sweeping legislation overhauling financial regulation.

We'll keep this posts alive, updating it daily while, of course, keep you informed of other news. If you missed something, comment us and your question will be solved as soon we can.

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Economy Lesson: How the Price System Works, by Henry Hazlitt

The whole argument of this book may be summed up in the statement that in studying the effects of any given economic proposal we must trace not merely the immediate results but the results in the long run, not merely the primary consequences but the secondary consequences, and not merely the effects on some special group but the effects on everyone. It follows that it is foolish and misleading to concentrate our attention merely on some special point—to examine, for example, merely what happens in one industry without considering what happens in all. But it is precisely from the persistent and lazy habit of thinking only of some particular industry or process in isolation that the major fallacies of economics stem. These fallacies pervade not merely the arguments of the hired spokesmen of special interests, but the arguments even of some economists who pass as profound.

It is on the fallacy of isolation, at bottom, that the “production-for-use-and-not-for-profit” school is based, with its attack on the allegedly vicious “price system.” The problem of production, say the adherents of this school, is solved. (This resounding error, as we shall see, is also the starting point of most currency cranks and share-the-wealth charlatans.) The scientists, the efficiency experts, the engineers, the technicians, have solved it. They could turn out almost anything you cared to mention in huge and practically unlimited amounts. But, alas, the world is not ruled by the engineers, thinking only of production, but by the businessmen, thinking only of profit. The businessmen give their orders to the engineers, instead of vice versa. These businessmen will turn out any object as long as there is a profit in doing so, but the moment there is no longer a profit in making that article, the wicked businessmen will stop making it, though many people’s wants are unsatisfied, and the world is crying for more goods.

There are so many fallacies in this view that they cannot all be disentangled at once. But the central error, as we have hinted, comes from looking at only one industry, or even at several industries in turn, as if each of them existed in isolation. Each of them in fact exists in relation to all the others, and every important decision made in it is affected by and affects the decisions made in all the others.

We can understand this better if we understand the basic problem that business collectively has to solve. To simplify this as much as possible, let us consider the problem that confronts a Robinson Crusoe on his desert island. His wants at first seem endless. He is soaked with rain; he shivers from cold; he suffers from hunger and thirst. He needs everything: drinking water, food, a roof over his head, protection from animals, a fire, a soft place to lie down. It is impossible for him to satisfy all these needs at once; he has not the time, energy or resources. He must attend immediately to the most pressing need. He suffers most, say, from thirst. He hollows out a place in the sand to collect rain water, or builds some crude receptacle. When he has provided for only a small water supply, however, he must turn to finding food before he tries to improve this. He can try to fish; but to do this he needs either a hook and line, or a net, and he must set to work on these. But everything he does delays or prevents him from doing something else only a little less urgent. He is faced constantly by the problem of alternative applications of his time and labor.

A Swiss Family Robinson, perhaps, finds this problem a little easier to solve. It has more mouths to feed, but it also has more hands to work for them. It can practice division and specialization of labor. The father hunts; the mother prepares the food; the children collect firewood. But even the family cannot afford to have one member of it doing endlessly the same thing, regardless of the relative urgency of the common need he supplies and the urgency of other needs still unfilled. When the children have gathered a certain pile of firewood, they cannot be used simply to increase the pile. It is soon time for one of them to be sent, say, for more water. The family too has the constant problem of choosing among alternative applications of labor, and, if it is lucky enough to have acquired guns, fishing tackle, a boat, axes, saws and so on, of choosing among alternative applications of labor and capital. It would be considered unspeakably silly for the wood-gathering member of the family to complain that they could gather more firewood if his brother helped him all day, instead of getting the fish that were needed for the family dinner. It is recognized clearly in the case of an isolated individual or family that one occupation can expand only at the expense of all other occupations.

Elementary illustrations like this are sometimes ridiculed as “Crusoe economics.” Unfortunately, they are ridiculed most by those who most need them, who fail to understand the particular principle illustrated even in this simple form, or who lose track of that principle completely when they come to examine the bewildering complications of a great modern economic society.

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Saturday, April 24, 2010

News: German parties wants Greece out of the eurozone. Bad times for Greek government

Christian Social Union of Bavaria, sister party of Angela Merkel party (CDU), wants to expel Greece from the eurozone, as Greek Prime minister asked for €45 bn in help from EU and IMF

Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), sister party of Christian Democratic Union (CDU) stated that Greece should abandon European Monetary Union (EMU), as the financial crisis they have makes them inappropriate to belong to the Eurozone.

Hans-Peter Friedrich, member of CSU's executive, said today at Der Spiegel newspaper that Athens authorities should study the possibility of leave the Eurozone.

Werner Langen, head of Christian Democrats group, said aid isn't a lasting answer to crisis and Greece only alternative is leave the Eurozone and recover capacity with big structural reforms.

Germany's finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble rejected any suggestion.

On the other hand, some part of Greek population don't think that IMF help will be nothing but a future burden to their economy, as the "IMF go home" posters at Greek streets manifest.

Greek protestors can be found today marching against IMF 'aid' at Athens streets.

Greek analysts said that Greek market is waiting for the aid asked, even if will be too short, and European Central Bank (ECB) believe that Greece financial needs are €80 bn, not 'just' €40-45 bn.

'Greek aid will spike the Dollar up, making exports more expensive for the US', said Alan Valdes floor trader



Tomorrow we'll post a summary all Goldman Sachs latest news with explanations for newcomers to the Economy Field. Stay with us.

See also: Yahoo News - Greek PM defends EU-IMF debt plea

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Special: Greek crisis

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Economy Lesson: Saving the X Industry, by Henry Hazlitt

The lobbies of Congress are crowded with representatives of the X industry. The X industry is sick. The X industry is dying. It must be saved. It can be saved only by a tariff, by higher prices, or by a subsidy. If it is allowed to die, workers will be thrown on the streets. Their landlords, grocers, butchers, clothing stores and local motion pictures will lose business, and depression will spread in ever-widening circles. But if the X industry, by prompt action of Congress, is saved—ah then! It will buy equipment from other industries; more men will be employed; they will give more business to the butchers, bakers and neon-light makers, and then it is prosperity that will spread in ever-widening circles.

It is obvious that this is merely a generalized form of the case we have just been considering. There the X industry was agriculture. But there is an endless number of X industries. Two of the most notable examples have been the coal and silver industries. To “save silver” Congress did immense harm. One of the arguments for the rescue plan was that it would help “the East.” One of its actual results was to cause deflation in China, which had been on a silver basis, and to force China off that basis. The United States Treasury was compelled to acquire, at ridiculous prices far above the market level, hoards of unnecessary silver, and to store it in vaults. The essential political aims of the “silver senators” could have been as well achieved, at a fraction of the harm and cost, by the payment of a frank subsidy to the mine owners or to their workers; but Congress and the country would never have approved a naked steal of this sort unaccompanied by the ideological flim-flam regarding “silver’s essential role in the national currency.

To save the coal industry Congress passed the Guffey Act, under which the owners of coal mines were not only permitted, but compelled, to conspire together not to sell below certain minimum prices fixed by the government. Though Congress had started out to fix “the” price of coal, the government soon found itself (because of different sizes, thousands of mines, and shipments to thousands of different destinations by rail, truck, ship and barge) fixing 350,000 separate prices for coal!* One effect of this attempt to keep coal prices above the competitive market level was to accelerate the tendency toward the substitution by consumers of other sources of power or heat—such as oil, natural gas and hydroelectric energy. Today we find the government trying to force conversion from oil consumption back to coal.

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Friday, April 23, 2010

News: Greece Crisis. Greece ask for €45 bn in help from EU and IMF

Due an intensified sell-off in Greek bonds (The rapid selling of securities as stocks or bonds that declines the value of said security. I spoke about Greek bonds few days ago) that increased Greek's debt to 8.83 per cent, the highest rate since Greece joined Eurozone in 2001, Greece requested aid from the eurozone.

Loan terms are being negotiated right now with the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, aiming to a €45 bn ($59 bn) supporting package to help Greece, €30 bn from European partners and 15 from IMF.

International analysts advised Greece to consider a voluntary restructuring of his own debt to meet repayments of the next 3 years, but George Papaconstantinou, Greek finance minister, denied that the country is working on a debt restructuring plan.

Mr. Papandreou warned of the real dangerous situation and the need of the help for the Greek economy.

Now, a few statistics from The Economist to understand the situation:

Read also:
Wall Street Journal - Greece Requests Emergency Financial Aid


Now my question goes to the readers: Do you expect Greece to repay his debt in the term agreed? If not, what will happen to Greece?

I'm not confident enough with Greece's economy. What do you expect?

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Special: Greek crisis

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Economy Lesson: “Parity” Prices, by Henry Hazlitt

Special interests, as the history of tariffs reminds us, can think of the most ingenious reasons why they should be the objects of special solicitude. Their spokesmen present a plan in their favor; and it seems at first so absurd that disinterested writers do not trouble to expose it. But the special interests keep on insisting on the scheme. Its enactment would make so much difference to their own immediate welfare that they can afford to hire trained economists and public relations experts to propagate it in their behalf. The public hears the argument so often repeated, and accompanied by such a wealth of imposing statistics, charts, curves and pie-slices, that it is soon taken in. When at last disinterested writers recognize that the danger of the scheme’s enactment is real, they are usually too late. They cannot in a few weeks acquaint themselves with the subject as thoroughly as the hired brains who have been devoting their full time to it for years; they are accused of being uninformed, and they have the air of men who presume to dispute axioms.

This general history will do as a history of the idea of “parity” prices for agricultural products. I forget the first day when it made its appearance in a legislative bill; but with the advent of the New Deal in 1933 it had become a definitely established principle, enacted into law; and as year succeeded year, and its absurd corollaries made themselves manifest, they were enacted too.

The argument for parity prices ran roughly like this. Agriculture is the most basic and important of all industries. It must be preserved at all costs. Moreover, the prosperity of everybody else depends upon the prosperity of the farmer. If he does not have the purchasing power to buy the products of industry, industry languishes. This was the cause of the 1929 collapse, or at least of our failure to recover from it. For the prices of farm products dropped violently, while the prices of industrial products dropped very little. The result was that the farmer could not buy industrial products; the city workers were laid off and could not buy farm products, and the depression spread in ever-widening vicious circles. There was only one cure, and it was simple. Bring back the prices of the farmer’s products to a parity with the prices of the things the farmer buys. This parity existed in the period from 1909 to 1914, when farmers were prosperous. That price relationship must be restored and preserved perpetually.

It would take too long, and carry us too far from our main point, to examine every absurdity concealed in this plausible statement. There is no sound reason for taking the particular price relationships that prevailed in a particular year or period and regarding them as sacrosanct, or even as necessarily more “normal” than those of any other period. Even if they were “normal” at the time, what reason is there to suppose that these same relationships should be preserved more than sixty years later in spite of the enormous changes in the conditions of production and demand that have taken place in the meantime? The period of 1909 to 1914, as the basis of parity, was not selected at random. In terms of relative prices it was one of the most favorable periods to agriculture in our entire history.

If there had been any sincerity or logic in the idea, it would have been universally extended. If the price relationships between agricultural and industrial products that prevailed from August 1909 to July 1914 ought to be preserved perpetually, why not preserve perpetually the price relationship of every commodity at that time to every other?

When the first edition of this book appeared in 1946, I used the following illustrations of the absurdities to which this would have led:

A Chevrolet six-cylinder touring car cost $2,150 in 1912; an incomparably improved six-cylinder Chevrolet sedan cost $907 in 1942; adjusted for “parity” on the same basis as farm products, however, it would have cost $3,270 in 1942. A pound of aluminum from 1909 to 1913 inclusive averaged 22.5 cents; its price early in 1946 was 14 cents; but at “parity” it would then have cost, instead, 41 cents.

It would be both difficult and debatable to try to bring these two particular comparisons down to date by adjusting not only for the serious inflation (consumer prices have more than tripled) between 1946 and 1978, but also for the qualitative differences in automobiles in the two periods. But this difficulty merely emphasizes the impracticability of the proposal.

After making, in the 1946 edition, the comparison quoted above, I went on to point out that the same type of increase in productivity had in part led also to the lower prices of farm products. “In the five year period 1955 through 1959 an average of 428 pounds of cotton was raised per acre in the United States as compared with an average of 260 pounds in the five-year period 1939 to 1943 and an average of only 188 pounds in the five year ‘base’ period 1909 to 1913. When these comparisons are brought down to date, they show that the increase in farm productivity has continued, though at a reduced rate. In the five-year period 1968 to 1972, an average of 467 pounds of cotton was raised per acre. Similarly, in the five years 1968 to 1972 an average of 84 bushels of corn per acre was raised compared with an average of only 26.1 bushels in 1935 to 1939, and an average of 31.3 bushels of wheat was raised per acre compared with an average of only 13.2 in the earlier period.

Costs of production have been substantially lowered for farm products by better application of chemical fertilizer, improved strains of seed and increasing mechanization. In the 1946 edition I made the following quotation:*

“On some large farms which have been completely mechanized and are operated along mass production lines, it requires only one-third to one-fifth the amount of labor to produce the same yields as it did a few years back.”

Yet all this is ignored by the apostles of “parity” prices.

The refusal to universalize the principle is not the only evidence that it is not a public-spirited economic plan but merely a device for subsidizing a special interest. Another evidence is that when agricultural prices go above parity, or are forced there by government policies, there is no demand on the part of the farm bloc in Congress that such prices be brought down to parity, or that the subsidy be to that extent repaid. It is a rule that works only one way.

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Thursday, April 22, 2010

Top 10 blogs list. Best blogs about Economy

Today I'm going to make a 'Top 10' Best blogs about economy I've found. I seriously recommend to visit them, clicking at blog's name. I hope you enjoy their blogs as I've enjoyed reading them:


1 Calculated Risk
A top notch blog. Updates frequently, with 4-5 posts everyday, short enough to read them and keep you interested, long enough to know all important information of the issue. You want a proof? Check their site meter to see their 55'5 million of visitors. Or even better, click it and read the blog

2 Econbrowser
With one daily post, this blog made by James D. Halmilton (Professor of Economics at California's University) and Menzie Chinn (Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison) touch every issue about economy. You can expect a serious work, with charts and statistics you'll love.

3 Greg Mankiw's Blog
The Grew Mankiw's blog. Professsor of economics at Harvard University, started his blog to keep in touch with his current and former students. Now, with 5 years of posting and almost 15 million visitors, his work must be good enough to justify it. Want to know? Visit his blog, you won't be disappointed

4 EclectEcon
Knowledge is better if given in small, high quality drops, and that's what John P. Palmer does

5 Reviving Economics
Garth Brazelton works for Indiana Economic Development Corporation as Development Finance Manager and as professor of macroeconomics at Indiana University. He also maintains this great blog.

6 MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mike Shedlock keeps an eye of the global economy an analyzes it. Simply of the best blogs about economy.

7 Economists Forum
A Financial Times blog, wrote by Martin Wolf, Chief economics commentator at Financial Times.

8 Kevin's Market Blog
What if you're interested in world markets? Stocks, currencies, commodities, bonds, gold, bank index? Then your option is a clear one. Visit Kevin's Market Blog

9 The Big Picture
An Up-to-date, neat design, easy to read, more than 57 million readers blog? Then you're talking about The Big Picture

10 Carpe Diem
Professor Mark J Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance. If you spent more than 105 mins looking for a good blog, I'm pretty sure than you already read this one. If not, what are you waiting for?


So, what do you think? They match with your own Top 10 list? I missed an important one?

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Economy Lesson: The Drive for Exports, by Henry Hazlitt

Exceeded only by the pathological dread of imports that affects all nations is a pathological yearning for exports. Logically, it is true, no thing could be more inconsistent. In the long run imports and exports must equal each other (considering both in the broadest sense, which includes such “invisible” terms as tourist expenditures, ocean freight charges and all other items in the “balance of payments”). It is exports that pay for imports, and vice versa. The greater exports we have, the greater imports we must have, if we ever expect to get paid. The smaller imports we have, the smaller exports we can have. Without imports we can have no exports, for foreigners will have no funds with which to buy our goods. When we decide to cut down our imports, we are in effect deciding also to cut down our exports. When we decide to increase our exports, we are in effect deciding also to increase our imports.

The reason for this is elementary. An American exporter sells his goods to a British importer and is paid in British pounds sterling. But he cannot use British pounds to pay the wages of his workers, to buy his wife’s clothes or to buy theater tickets. For all these purposes he needs American dollars. Therefore his British pounds are of no use to him unless he either uses them himself to buy British goods or sells them (through his bank or other agent) to some American importer who wishes to use them to buy British goods. Whichever he does, the transaction cannot be completed until the American exports have been paid for by an equal amount of imports.

The same situation would exist if the transaction had been conducted in terms of American dollars instead of British pounds. The British importer could not pay the American exporter in dollars unless some previous British exporter had built up a credit in dollars here as a result of some previous sale to us. Foreign exchange, in short, is a clearing transaction in which, in America, the dollar debts of foreigners are canceled against their dollar credits. In England, the pound sterling debts of foreigners are canceled against their sterling credits.

There is no reason to go into the technical details of all this, which can be found in any good textbook on foreign exchange. But it should be pointed out that there is nothing inherently mysterious about it (in spite of the mystery in which it is so often wrapped), and that it does not differ essentially from what happens in domestic trade. Each of us must also sell something, even if for most of us it is our own services rather than goods, in order to get the purchasing power to buy. Domestic trade is also conducted in the main by crossing off checks and other claims against each other through clearing houses.

It is true that under the international gold standard discrepancies in balances of imports and exports were sometimes settled by shipments of gold. But they could just as well have been settled by shipments of cotton, steel, whisky, perfume, or any other commodity. The chief difference is that when a gold standard exists the demand for gold is almost indefinitely expansible (partly because it is thought of and accepted as a residual international “money” rather than as just another commodity), and that nations do not put artificial obstacles in the way of receiving gold as they do in the way of receiving almost everything else. (On the other hand, of late years they have taken to putting more obstacles in the way of exporting gold than in the way of exporting anything else; but that is another story.)

Now the same people who can be clearheaded and sensible when the subject is one of domestic trade can be incredibly emotional and muddleheaded when it becomes one of foreign trade. In the latter field they can seriously advocate or acquiesce in principles which they would think it insane to apply in domestic business. A typical example is the belief that the government should make huge loans to foreign countries for the sake of increasing our exports, regardless of whether or not these loans are likely to be repaid.

American citizens, of course, should be allowed to lend their own funds abroad at their own risk. The government should put no arbitrary barriers in the way of private lending to countries with which we are at peace. As individuals we should be willing to give generously, for humane reasons alone, to people who are in great distress or in danger of starving. But we ought always to know clearly what we are doing. It is not wise to bestow charity on foreign people under the impression that one is making a hardheaded business transaction purely for one’s own selfish purposes. That could only lead to misunderstandings and bad relations later.

Yet among the arguments put forward in favor of huge foreign lending one fallacy is always sure to occupy a prominent place. It runs like this. Even if half (or all) the loans we make to foreign countries turn sour and are not repaid, this nation will still be better off for having made them, because they will give an enormous impetus to our exports.

It should be immediately obvious that if the loans we make to foreign countries to enable them to buy our goods are not repaid, then we are giving the goods away. A nation cannot grow rich by giving goods away. It can only make itself poorer.

No one doubts this proposition when it is applied privately. If an automobile company lends a man $5,000 to buy a car priced at that amount, and the loan is not repaid, the automobile company is not better off because it has “sold” the car. It has simply lost the amount that it cost to make the car. If the car cost $4,000 to make, and only half the loan is repaid, then the company has lost $4,000 minus $2,500, or a net amount of $1,500 It has not made up in trade what it lost in bad loans.3

If this proposition is so simple when applied to a private company, why do apparently intelligent people get confused about it when applied to a nation? The reason is that the transaction must then be traced mentally through a few more stages. One group may indeed make gains—while the rest of us take the losses.

It is true, for example, that persons engaged exclusively or chiefly in export business might gain on net balance as a result of bad loans made abroad. The national loss on the transaction would be certain, but it might be distributed in ways difficult to follow. The private lenders would take their losses directly. The losses from government lending would ultimately be paid out of increased taxes imposed on everybody. But there would also be many indirect losses brought about by the effect on the economy of these direct losses.

In the long run business and employment in America would be hurt, not helped, by foreign loans that were not repaid. For every extra dollar that foreign buyers had with which to buy American goods, domestic buyers would ultimately have one dollar less. Businesses that depend on domestic trade would therefore be hurt in the long run as much as export businesses would be helped. Even many concerns that did an export business would be hurt on net balance. American automobile companies, for example, sold about 15 percent of their output in the foreign market in 1975. It would not profit them to sell 20 percent of their output abroad as a result of bad foreign loans if they thereby lost, say, io percent of their American sales as the result of added taxes taken from American buyers to make up for the unpaid foreign loans.

None of this means, I repeat, that it is unwise for private investors to make loans abroad, but simply that we cannot get rich by making bad ones.

For the same reasons that it is stupid to give a false stimulation to export trade by making bad loans or outright gifts to foreign countries, it is stupid to give a false stimulation to export trade through export subsidies. An export subsidy is a clear case of giving the foreigner something for nothing, by selling him goods for less than it costs us to make them. It is another case of trying to get rich by giving things away.

In the face of all this, the United States government has been engaged for years in a “foreign economic aid” program the greater part of which has consisted in outright government-to-government gifts of many billions of dollars. Here we are interested in just one aspect of that program—the naive belief of many of its sponsors that this is a clever or even a necessary method of “increasing our exports” and so maintaining prosperity and employment. It is still another form of the delusion that a nation can get rich by giving things away. What conceals the truth from many supporters of the program is that what is directly given away is not the exports themselves but the money with which to buy them. It is possible, therefore, for individual exporters to profit on net balance from the national loss — if their individual profit from the exports is greater than their share of taxes to pay for the program.

Here we have simply one more example of the error of looking only at the immediate effect of a policy on some special group, and of not having the patience or intelligence to trace the long-run effects of the policy on everyone.

If we do trace these long-run effects on everyone, we come to an additional conclusion—the exact opposite of the doctrine that has dominated the thinking of most government officials for centuries. This is, as John Stuart Mill so clearly pointed out, that the real gain of foreign trade to any country lies not in its exports but in its imports. Its consumers are either able to get from abroad commodities at a lower price than they could obtain them for at home, or commodities that they could not get from domestic producers at all. Outstanding examples in the United States are coffee and tea. Collectively considered, the real reason a country needs exports is to pay for its imports. Share

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

News: Apple finances on rise, increase of 90% profit in Q2

Apple reported a 90% growth of his total revenue. Wall Street estimated a 49%

This Tuesday, Apple surprised us surprising even their more optimist forecast: His total revenue (Price x Quantity) increased a 90%, when all the economist aimed their forecast to something on the forty %, being Wall Street one of the more optimistic with a forecast of 49% revenue increase.

Steve Jobs, chief executive, said that the new iPad had been well received since it broke into the market April 3. Steve promised 'several more extraordinary products in the pipeline for this year', and the Computer market analysts pointed to the possibility of the release of a new version of the iPhone in summer, as early as June.

On the other hand, Peter Oppenheimer, chief financial officer, warned that margins probably will fall in the present quarter, because iPad launch costs. Even Peter said that the revenue will be between $13bn and $13,4bn (€9.7bn and €10bn) the analysts suggested that he's being too conservative and expected a bigger revenue.

Executives said that iPad demand was better than what they anticipated, having trouble to supply the shops. "We're adding capability. It has shocked us, the level of demand, at least initially", said Mr Cook, Chief Operating officer of Apple. Mr Cook didn't commented how much iPad would add to Apple's total profit on the medium-long term, but said that they expect that will perform as much as iPhone, giving it a big role on the Apple's profit

Michael Obuchowski, managing director at First Empire Asset Management Inc, in Hauppauge, New York, oversees a $3.8bn in assets and praised the 'incredible numbers' of Apple. "With the improving global economy lifting all the boats, Apple will benefit more than most.", ended.

Now, let's take a look at the numbers of Apple devices:

COMPUTERS
- The company sold 2.94 million Macs, a 33 percent increase (28% increase of portable MacBook and a 40% of Apple's desktop computers).
- Sales of the Mac rose 27 percent to $3.76 bn. The demand of portable MacBook surpass the desktop systems demand.

IPHONE
- Vodafone in the UK and others new carriers, doubled the shipments of iPhones. Pretty impressive, knowing that the average selling price of a single iPhone is $600, but they managed to ship 8.75 million iPhones. Apple did it especially well in Europe and Asia, where sales rose a 400%
- iPhone sales and related products, gained a 124 per cent increase, with a total revenue of $5.45bn. iPhone's alone represent a 40% of total Apple's revenue

IPOD
- Apple still sold 10.9 million of the digital players.
- IPod sales rose 12% percent to $1.86 billion, an average but still important piece of the cake.

IPAD
No one can offer statistics about iPad, as the study didn't include the iPad, which went on sale April 3, but investors anticipate that sales will climb as much as iPhone did (even more), especially when new products will be released such an updated iPhone and a television related device

Apple's future:
Toni Sacconaghi [ENLLAÇ], Analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, estimated shipments of 7.3 million iPhones, 3.1 million Macs and 9.9 million iPods. Sacchonaghi rated the stock as 'outperform', is also the top-ranked computer analyst by Institutional Investor magazine. Gene Munster, analyst at Piper Jaffray & Co in Minneapolis said : "The iPhone is on the fire right now,"



Will Apple exceed again their forecast? How will iPad impact Apple's revenue? Make your own forecast at 'comments'

See also:
CNN - Apple soars with 90% increase in profits
Yahoo News - Apple shares rocket after net income jumps 90 pct Share

News: China oil demand 12.8% growth

Chinese economy growth a 12%, as well as China's oil demand

Chinese growth and resurfacing from their crisis is in a steady state. China was criticized because their economy actions, such as devaluation of Yuan, but China is showing a fast recovery (so fast for some people, who said that China's economy is a bubble) and as we informed, China's economy growth 12%, but also is his oil demand.

According to an analysis of official data by Platts, the energy information branch of McGraw-Hill Cos, Chinese oil demand rose 12.8% in March, reaching a purchase of 8.12 million barrels per day over March, being this the seventh month of a raising in demand oil for China. being the top 8.5 million barrels per day at February. This (Patts says) is helped by the state owned companies Sinopec, PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corp who increased their refining capacity.

Also as Chinese economy growth, their gross domestic product (GDP) growth a 11.9% in the first quarter of 2010.

Is hard right now to forecast what would be the roof of the Chinese oil demand. Right now, the biggest consumption are made by transportation (5% of personal cars only of 44% of the total consumption) and industry, owned by the state.

Feel free to say your own forecast, commenting the post below these lines

More information: Yahoo News - China oil demand up

Related posts:

China's economy grows nearly 12 percent Share

Economy Lesson: Who's “Protected” by Tariffs?, by Henry Hazlitt

The daily lesson:

A mere recital of the economic policies of governments all over the world is calculated to cause any serious student of economics to throw up his hands in despair. What possible point can there be, he is likely to ask, in discussing refinements and advances in economic theory, when popular thought and the actual policies of governments, certainly in everything connected with international relations, have not yet caught up with Adam Smith? For present-day tariff and trade policies are not only as bad as those in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, but incomparably worse. The real reasons for those tariffs and other trade barriers are the same, and the pretended reasons are also the same.

Since The Wealth of Nations appeared more than two centuries ago, the case for free trade has been stated thousands of times, but perhaps never with more direct simplicity and force than it was stated in that volume. In general Smith rested his case on one fundamental proposition: “In every country it always is and must be the interest of the great body of the people to buy whatever they want of those who sell it cheapest.” “The proposition is so very manifest,” Smith continued, “that it seems ridiculous to take any pains to prove it; nor could it ever have been called in question, had not the interested sophistry of merchants and manufacturers confounded the common-sense of mankind.”

From another point of view, free trade was considered as one aspect of the specialization of labor:

It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy.

The tailor does not attempt to make his own shoes, but buys them of the shoemaker. The shoemaker does not attempt to make his own clothes, but employs a tailor. The farmer attempts to make neither the one nor the other, but employs those different artificers. All of them find it for their interest to employ their whole industry in a way in which they have some advantage over their neighbors, and to purchase with a part of its produce, or what is the same thing, with the price of a part of it, whatever else they have occasion for. What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.

But whatever led people to suppose that what was prudence in the conduct of every private family could be folly in that of a great kingdom? It was a whole network of fallacies, out of which mankind has still been unable to cut its way. And the chief of them was the central fallacy with which this book is concerned. It was that of considering merely the immediate effects of a tariff on special groups, and neglecting to consider its long run effects on the whole community.

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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Economy News: EU will pay your Holiday, after now are part of 'Human Rights'

Tired after a hard year working? If you're European you can have your holidays paid by EU.

I was checking blogosphere, looking for news of the economy and finance world, when I found MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis blog and found that European Union will subside a percentage of holidays.

The idea, suggested by Antonio Tajani (appointed by Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian PM), is that the days when holidays was a luxury, are no longer. 'Holidays are a Human Right', said Brussels. And according with that, they'll be subsided and our Nordic fellows will came to our Mediterranean seas in summer, and we'll enjoy of a snowed Iceland or a Finnish sauna (If Eyjafjallajökull allows it)

Shocked as almost everyone reading this, I decided to do a little research about the subject. As it turns out, this programme (started by Spain, years ago) will be piloted until 2013 and then, will be in full operation. Will be aimed to pensioners and anyone over 65 years, young people (between 18-25 yr), families facing 'difficult social, financial or personal' circumstances and disabled people (accompanied by one person).

Northern Europeans will be encouraged to visit southern Europe and vice versa. How participants, and how much have not yet decided, but it's expected that the trip will be subsidized about 30% of the cost.

As I stated before, this measure isn't a new idea, as Spain subsidized European residents over 55 years old, to power the winter off-season (the weaker one). Spain calculated that for every €1 spent in help, gained €1'6 fro it's resorts.

Will this be an bottomless well for our money, or a way to decrease unemployment and increase tourism? Only time will say. The economist opinion, today, isn't unanimous in one way or another, but right now there isn't room for failed experiments.

Read more: Times Online Share

Economy Lesson: The Fetish of Full Employment, by Henry Hazlitt

The economic goal of any nation, as of any individual, is to get the greatest results with the least effort. The whole economic progress of mankind has consisted in getting more production with the same labor. It is for this reason that men began putting burdens on the backs of mules instead of on their own; that they went on to invent the wheel and the wagon, the railroad and the motor truck. It is for this reason that men used their ingenuity to develop a hundred thousand labor-saving inventions.

All this is so elementary that one would blush to state it if it were not being constantly forgotten by those who coin and circulate the new slogans. Translated into national terms, this first principle means that our real objective is to maximize production. In doing this, full employment—that is, the absence of involuntary idleness—becomes a necessary byproduct. But production is the end, employment merely the means. We cannot continuously have the fullest production without full employment. But we can very easily have full employment without full production.

Primitive tribes are naked, and wretchedly fed and housed, but they do not suffer from unemployment. China and India are incomparably poorer than ourselves, but the main trouble from which they suffer is primitive production methods (which are both a cause and a consequence of a shortage of capital) and not unemployment. Nothing is easier to achieve than full employment, once it is divorced from the goal of full production and taken as an end in itself. Hitler provided full employment with a huge armament program. World War II provided full employment for every nation involved. The slave labor in Germany had full employment. Prisons and chain gangs have full employment. Coercion can always provide full employment.

Yet our legislators do not present Full Production bills in Congress but Full Employment bills. Even committees of businessmen recommend “a President’s Commission on Full Employment,” not on Full Production, or even on Full Employment and Full Production. Everywhere the means is erected into the end, and the end itself is forgotten.

Wages and employment are discussed as if they had no relation to productivity and output. On the assumption that there is only a fixed amount of work to be done, the conclusion is drawn that a thirty-hour week will provide more jobs and will therefore be preferable to a forty-hour week. A hundred make-work practices of labor unions are confusedly tolerated. When a Petrillo threatens to put a radio station out of business unless it employs twice as many musicians as it needs, he is supported by part of the public because he is after all merely trying to create jobs. When we had our WPA, it was considered a mark of genius for the administrators to think of projects that employed the largest number of men in relation to the value of the work performed—in other words, in which labor was least efficient.

It would be far better, if that were the choice—which it isn’t—to have maximum production with part of the population supported in idleness by undisguised relief than to provide “full employment” by so many forms of disguised make-work that production is disorganized. The progress of civilization has meant the reduction of employment, not its increase. It is because we have become increasingly wealthy as a nation that we have been able virtually to eliminate child labor, to remove the necessity of work for many of the aged and to make it unnecessary for millions of women to take jobs. A much smaller proportion of the American population needs to work than that, say, of China or of Russia. The real question is not how many millions of jobs there will be in America ten years from now, but how much shall we produce, and what, in consequence, will be our standard of living? The problem of distribution on which all the stress is being put today, is after all more easily solved the more there is to distribute.

We can clarify our thinking if we put our chief emphasis where it belongs—on policies that will maximize production.

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Monday, April 19, 2010

Economy News: Iceland's volcano ashes darkens European airlines profit

Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland's 5,466-foot volcano (1466 meters), days ago erupted. Besides the spectacular views, 700 evacuated and a giant cloud of ashes and dust covering almost all Europe, the volcano's eruption
is harming Airlines economy.

In fact, the European Commission announced that the economic impact of volcanic cloud will be greater than 9/11. Siim Kallas, the European Commissioner for Transport, at a press conference said that European Commission will bailout airlines of the states ask for it.

And he's right. If not as bad as 9/11, this (new) crisis gives more trouble to airlines, specially the European ones. Let's check the numbers:

- Airlines worldwide will lose $2,8 billion in 2010 after an estimated $9,4 billion cumulative loss last year, as the International Air Transport Association predicted last month

- European airlines will lose $1 billion, at a rate of $200 MM (185€ millions) daily

- At the stock market, Lufthansa dropped a 4'5%, Vueling 6'8%, British Airways 3'6% (worst of all British market), Air France 4'7% (worst rates of French market). Low cost companies as Easyjet and Ryanair, dropped a 3'8% and 4'8% respectively

- Six millions passengers affected (April, 19th), who losed their flight

How much this will last? Will the companies recovery from the crisis or they'll need the rescue of the European Union states? These are the questions over every the airline owner.

While this solves, enjoy the spectacle of the volcano



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Economy News: Youtube: Is google making a profit?

Let's analyse if youtube was a worth purchase

Who doesn't know youtube? TV, our friends, colleagues, everyone is broadcasting and sending us their videos. But that was a good business for Google? Let's analyse the numers.

Google bought youtube for $1.65 billion at the second half of year 2006. At 2005 spent $130.5 milion buying other 15 small companies. Reading news of 4 and 5 years ago, people questioned Google decisions, stating that the company is 'betting' in youtube, more investing on it with this purchase. Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said that 'This is (was) the next step in the evolution of the Internet'.

And time proved they were right. Youtube total net revenue at 2008 was $244 MMs, and the last year was 2009 $472 MMs. In 2 years they're halfway to pay what Youtube rights cost them.

Estimations for 2010 points to a Total Net Revenue of $614 MMs and a growth of 30%. 2011 will increase a 20% and Google will earn $737 MMs if all expectations are right.


Click the image to enlarge it

What we know for true, is that the first quarter of 2010 earnings was beat Wall Street expectations. But time will told us, again, if we're right or not.

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HP unstoppable: Net income growth of 28% in Q1

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Economy Lesson: Disbanding Troops and Bureaucrats, by Henry Hazlitt

When, after every great war, it is proposed to demobilize the armed forces, there is always a great fear that there will not be enough jobs for these forces and that in consequence they will be unemployed. It is true that, when millions of men are suddenly released, it may require time for private industry to reabsorb them—though what has been chiefly remarkable in the past has been the speed, rather than the slowness, with which this was accomplished. The fears of unemployment arise because people look at only one side of the process.

They see soldiers being turned loose on the labor market. Where is the “purchasing power” going to come from to employ them? If we assume that the public budget is being balanced, the answer is simple. The government will cease to support the soldiers. But the taxpayers will be allowed to retain the funds that were previously taken from them in order to support the soldiers. And the taxpayers will then have additional funds to buy additional goods. Civilian demand, in other words, will be increased, and will give employment to the added labor force represented by the former soldiers.

If the soldiers have been supported by an unbalanced budget— that is, by government borrowing and other forms of deficit financing—the case is somewhat different. But that raises a different question: we shall consider the effects of deficit financing in a later chapter. It is enough to recognize that deficit financing is irrelevant to the point that has just been made; for if we assume that there is any advantage in a budget deficit, then precisely the same budget deficit could be maintained as before by simply reducing taxes by the amount previously spent in supporting the wartime army.

But the demobilization will not leave us economically just where we were before it started. The soldiers previously supported by civilians will not become merely civilians supported by other civilians. They will become self-supporting civilians. If we assume that the men who would otherwise have been retained in the armed forces are no longer needed for defense, then their retention would have been sheer waste. They would have been unproductive. The taxpayers, in return for supporting them, would have got nothing. But now the taxpayers turn over this part of their funds to them as fellow civilians in return for equivalent goods or services. Total national production, the wealth of everybody, is higher.

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Sunday, April 18, 2010

Economy News: EU warned banks: 'Polluter pays'

EU warned that the new fund will not be an insurance for banks, that will ansker their own risks. Trichet, president of ECB (European Central Bank) urged to avoid 'financial nationalism'.

At this weekend ECOFIN (Ministers of Economy and Finance) meeting, the 27 states of European Union fired a warning to the banks: The goverment of every country will not rescue a single bank.

'Polluter pays', said Elena Salgado, Vice President of Economics. Resolution Fund, the name of this very new instrument, should avoid that the failure of a single bank endanger the whole system.

If the European Union finally agrees that each state will create and manage their own fund, Salgado believes that the states should follow the spanish example of Deposit Guarantee fund, which covers each account holder up to the first 100.000€ (135,350 USD) if the entity is bankrup.

The question is: What will this mean to the European Economy present and future? Will it help, or not?

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Economy Lesson: Spread-the-Work , by Henry Hazlitt

I have referred to various union make-work and featherbed practices. These practices, and the public toleration of them, spring from the same fundamental fallacy as the fear of machines. This is the belief that a more efficient way of doing a thing destroys jobs, and its necessary corollary that a less efficient way of doing it creates them.

Allied to this fallacy is the belief that there is just a fixed amount of work to be done in the world, and that, if we cannot add to this work by thinking up more cumbersome ways of doing it, at least we can think of devices for spreading it around among as large a number of people as possible.

This error lies behind the minute subdivision of labor upon which unions insist. In the building trades in large cities the subdivision is notorious. Bricklayers are not allowed to use stones for a chimney: that is the special work of stonemasons. An electrician cannot rip out a board to fix a connection and put it back again: that is the special job, no matter how simple it may be, of the carpenters. A plumber will not remove or put back a tile incident to fixing a leak in the shower: that is the job of a tile-setter.

Furious “jurisdictional” strikes are fought among unions for the exclusive right to do certain types of borderline jobs. In a statement prepared by the American railroads for the Attorney-General’s Committee on Administrative Procedure, the roads gave innumerable examples in which the National Railroad Adjustment Board had decided that

each separate operation on the railroad, no matter how minute, such as talking over a telephone or spiking or unspiking a switch, is so far an exclusive property of a particular class of employee that if an employee of another class, in the course of his regular duties, performs such operations he must not only be paid an extra day’s wages for doing so, but at the same time the furloughed or unemployed members of the class held to be entitled to perform the operation must be paid a day’s wages for not having been called upon to perform it.

It is true that a few persons can profit at the expense of the rest of us from this minute arbitrary subdivision of labor— provided it happens in their case alone. But those who support it as a general practice fail to see that it always raises production costs; that it results on net balance in less work done and in fewer goods produced. The householder who is forced to employ two men to do the work of one has, it is true, given employment to one extra man. But he has just that much less money left over to spend on something that would employ somebody else. Because his bathroom leak has been repaired at double what it should have cost, he decides not to buy the new sweater he wanted. “Labor” is no better off, because a day’s employment of an unneeded tile-setter has meant a day’s disemployment of a sweater knitter or machine handler. The householder, however, is worse off. Instead of having a repaired shower and a sweater, he has the shower and no sweater. And if we count the sweater as part of the national wealth, the country is short one sweater. This symbolizes the net result of the effort to make extra work by arbitrary subdivision of labor.

But there are other schemes for “spreading the work,” often put forward by union spokesmen and legislators. The most frequent of these is the proposal to shorten the working week, usually by law. The belief that it would “spread the work” and “give more jobs” was one of the main reasons behind the inclusion of the penaltyovertime provision in the existing Federal Wage-Hour Law. The previous legislation in the states, forbidding the employment of women or minors for more, say, than forty-eight hours a week, was based on the conviction that longer hours were injurious to health and morale. Some of it was based on the belief that longer hours were harmful to efficiency. But the provision in the federal law, that an employer must pay a worker a 50 percent premium above his regular hourly rate of wages for all hours worked in any week above forty, was not based primarily on the belief that forty-five hours a week, say, was injurious either to health or efficiency. It was inserted partly in the hope of boosting the worker’s weekly income, and partly in the hope that, by discouraging the employer from taking on anyone regularly for more than forty hours a week, it would force him to employ additional workers instead. At the time of writing this, there are many schemes for “averting unemployment” by enacting a thirty-hour week or a four-day week.

What is the actual effect of such plans, whether enforced by individual unions or by legislation? It will clarify the problem if we consider two cases. The first is a reduction in the standard working week from forty hours to thirty without any change in the hourly rate of pay. The second is a reduction in the working week from forty hours to thirty, but with a sufficient increase in hourly wage rates to maintain the same weekly pay for the individual workers already employed.

Let us take the first case. We assume that the working week is cut from forty hours to thirty, with no change in hourly pay. If there is substantial unemployment when this plan is put into effect, the plan will no doubt provide additional jobs. We cannot assume that it will provide sufficient additional jobs, however, to maintain the same payrolls and the same number of man-hours as before, unless we make the unlikely assumptions that in each industry there has been exactly the same percentage of unemployment and that the new men and women employed are no less efficient at their special tasks on the average than those who had already been employed. But suppose we do make these assumptions. Suppose we do assume that the right number of additional workers of each skill is available, and that the new workers do not raise production costs. What will be the result of reducing the working week from forty hours to thirty (without any increase in hourly pay)?

Though more workers will be employed, each will be working fewer hours, and there will, therefore, be no net increase in man-hours. It is unlikely that there will be any significant increase in production. Total payrolls and “purchasing power” will be no larger. All that will have happened, even under the most favorable assumptions (which would seldom be realized) is that the workers previously employed will subsidize, in effect, the workers previously unemployed. For in order that the new workers will individually receive three-fourths as many dollars a week as the old workers used to receive, the old workers will themselves now individually receive only three-fourths as many dollars a week as previously. It is true that the old workers will now work fewer hours; but this purchase of more leisure at a high price is presumably not a decision they have made for its own sake: it is a sacrifice made to provide others with jobs.

The labor union leaders who demand shorter weeks to “spread the work” usually recognize this, and therefore they put the proposal forward in a form in which everyone is supposed to eat his cake and have it too. Reduce the working week from forty hours to thirty, they tell us, to provide more jobs; but compensate for the shorter week by increasing the hourly rate of pay by 33.33 percent. The workers employed, say, were previously getting an average of $226 a week for forty hours work; in order that they may still get $226 for only thirty hours work, the hourly rate of pay must be advanced to an average of more than $7.53.

What would be the consequences of such a plan? The first and most obvious consequence would be to raise costs of production. If we assume that the workers, when previously employed for forty hours, were getting less than the level of production costs, prices and profits made possible, then they could have got the hourly increase without reducing the length of the working week. They could, in other words, have worked the same number of hours and got their total weekly incomes increased by one-third, instead of merely getting, as they are under the new thirty-hour week, the same weekly income as before. But if under the forty-hour week, the workers were already getting as high a wage as the level of production costs and prices made possible (and the very unemployment they are trying to cure may be a sign that they were already getting even more than this), then the increase in production costs as a result of the 33.33 percent increase in hourly wage rates will be much greater than the existing state of prices, production and costs can stand.

The result of the higher wage rate, therefore, will be a much greater unemployment than before. The least efficient firms will be thrown out of business, and the least efficient workers will be thrown out of jobs. Production will be reduced all around the circle. Higher production costs and scarcer supplies will tend to raise prices, so that workers can buy less with the same dollar wages; on the other hand, the increased unemployment will shrink demand and hence tend to lower prices. What ultimately happens to the prices of goods will depend upon what monetary policies are then allowed. But if a policy of monetary inflation is pursued, to enable prices to rise so that the increased hourly wages can be paid, this will merely be a disguised way of reducing real wage rates, so that these will return, in terms of the amount of goods they can purchase, to the same real rate as before. The result would then be the same as if the working week had been reduced without an increase in hourly wage rates. And the results of that have already been discussed.

The spread-the-work schemes, in brief, rest on the same sort of illusion that we have been considering. The people who support such schemes think only of the employment they might provide for particular persons or groups; they do not stop to consider what their whole effect would be on everybody.

The spread-the-work schemes rest also, as we began by pointing out, on the false assumption that there is just a fixed amount of work to be done. There could be no greater fallacy. There is no limit to the amount of work to be done as long as any human need or wish that work could fill remains unsatisfied. In a modern exchange economy, the most work will be done when prices, costs and wages are in the best relations with each other. What these relations are we shall later consider.

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